Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.022686 0.025782 0.029160 0.033119 0.037636 0.042633 0.048584
2025-02-23 0.017693 0.021890 0.026882 0.033265 0.041227 0.050852 0.063403
2025-03-02 0.014715 0.019276 0.025025 0.032823 0.043157 0.056432 0.074855
2025-03-09 0.013037 0.017897 0.024320 0.033465 0.046209 0.063422 0.088582
2025-03-16 0.011442 0.016348 0.023104 0.033133 0.047725 0.068311 0.099787
2025-03-23 0.010577 0.015668 0.022943 0.034157 0.051128 0.076037 0.115723
2025-03-30 0.009302 0.014228 0.021502 0.033099 0.051276 0.078918 0.124614
2025-04-06 0.008385 0.013212 0.020561 0.032649 0.052224 0.082993 0.135646
2025-04-13 0.007428 0.012027 0.019227 0.031418 0.051761 0.084731 0.142984
2025-04-20 0.007074 0.011764 0.019309 0.032450 0.055038 0.092763 0.161555
2025-04-27 0.006715 0.011451 0.019270 0.033256 0.057978 0.100466 0.180303
2025-05-04 0.006422 0.011216 0.019329 0.034218 0.061254 0.109010 0.201379
2025-05-11 0.005940 0.010621 0.018735 0.034005 0.062475 0.114141 0.216961
2025-05-18 0.005562 0.010177 0.018369 0.034171 0.064408 0.120760 0.236114
2025-05-25 0.005135 0.009601 0.017709 0.033715 0.065108 0.125107 0.251255
2025-06-01 0.004901 0.009363 0.017644 0.034376 0.068003 0.133908 0.276223
2025-06-08 0.004561 0.008891 0.017094 0.034034 0.068871 0.138779 0.293589
2025-06-15 0.004418 0.008787 0.017242 0.035088 0.072652 0.149861 0.325265
2025-06-22 0.004046 0.008197 0.016380 0.034000 0.071877 0.151439 0.336432
2025-06-29 0.003775 0.007786 0.015844 0.033537 0.072371 0.155716 0.354017
2025-07-06 0.003448 0.007232 0.014969 0.032271 0.071000 0.155819 0.362058
2025-07-13 0.003368 0.007193 0.015160 0.033332 0.074873 0.167846 0.399251
2025-07-20 0.003270 0.007106 0.015243 0.034160 0.078291 0.179166 0.436002